AMD’s x86 Server CPU share is expected to exceed 22% in 2023

According to the latest research by TrendForce, the mass production schedule of the new Sapphire Rapids has been delayed due to the poor yield rate of Intel 7. It is estimated that the current production yield of Sapphire Rapids is only 50~60%, which affects the main product Sapphire Rapids MCC, which is mass-produced. The plan was delayed from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of 2023. The delay of mass production schedule not only affects the ODM material preparation cycle, but also greatly reduces the proportion of OEMs and CSPs importing Sapphire Rapids this year. AMD (Chaowei) will thus become the biggest beneficiary. It is estimated that the market share of AMD x86 server CPU shipments will be about 15% in 2022, and it is expected to exceed 22% in 2023.

AMD has greatly increased the production capacity of ABF carrier boards since the second half of 2021. At the same time, more and more end customers have increased requirements for reducing energy consumption. Considering the total cost of the server (TCO), they have begun to tend to use single slot server. TrendForce believes that changes in customer demand will enable AMD to get rid of the difficult situation that was difficult to break through under the 2-socket architecture in the past, and will also be more conducive to AMD’s sprint shipments.

In addition to the weak demand in the general environment, Intel’s challenges include frequent shortages of low-end FPGA materials, which affect its dual-socket CPU orders, and pressures such as weakening government bidding demand and OEMs lowering inventory levels.

ESG is included in corporate procurement indicators, driving demand for single-socket servers

Intel’s new product mass production schedule has been delayed. From the ODM orders, it can be seen that CSP manufacturers have increased their reliance on AMD. Because the overall server cost of AMD Milan is lower than that of Intel Ice Lake, and AMD Milan’s RDIMM scalability and SSD channel count Both are better, and do not need to follow Intel’s dual-socket standard design, that is, the performance required by customers can be achieved, and customers can effectively save capital expenditures.

In addition, in the short term, the market share of Intel x86 server CPU shipments in the past two quarters has dropped by nearly 6% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the large transfer of orders from US-based CSPs. Among them, the shipment of AMD Milan-X has stimulated US-based CSPs. Such as the pulling force of Microsoft and Meta. Furthermore, the Lattice CPLD that must be matched with 2-socket servers equipped with Intel CPUs is still tight, and customers are also switching to AMD due to concerns about supply. In the long run, as enterprises and governments have successively included ESG indicators into their procurement considerations, energy saving performance will become one of the keys to procurement decisions. Therefore, TrendForce believes that AMD will usher in an indicative growth in 2023. It is estimated that the market share of AMD x86 server CPU shipments will reach 25% in the fourth quarter of next year, a year-on-year increase of 7%.